Explore four trends that will define the solar market in 2024, including projected growth, global supply chains, inflationary impact on energy pricing, and the rise of community solar farms.
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The average value of U.S. solar panel shipments (a proxy for price) has decreased from $1.96 per peak watt (Wp) in 2010 to $0.39/Wp in 2022. The average value of solar panels shipments increased 15% from 2021, amid
By contrast, the IEA forecasts global solar project capacity additions of 402 GW in 2024, rising to 540 GW by 2028. This "significant supply glut" has already created an environment of low panel prices and led to a
Since 2010, residential solar panel prices have fallen by roughly 50% while US solar deployment has grown by over 2,000%. The slight rise in residential solar pricing from 2020-2023 is largely attributed to supply chain tangles from the
Considering an average panel lifetime of 25 years, the worldwide solar PV waste is anticipated to reach between 4%-14% of total generation capacity by 2030 and rise to over 80% (around 78
The supply of superimposed solar silicon materials is limited, the output is limited, the supply is in short supply, and the price is supported. It is expected that there is still room for the price of
S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts global solar additions of 399 GW in 2024, and 465 GW in 2028. This "significant supply glut" has already created an environment
"As supply is still set to outpace demand in 2024 a sustained increase in component prices is unlikely to happen unless supported by policy changes", such as reforms to bidding for solar components that keep sales prices above input costs, said Rystad's Bakke. China has yet to announce plans for any such changes.
Among the biggest headwinds for solar is a tripling in prices for steel, a key component in racks that hold solar panels, and polysilicon, the raw material used in panels. Soaring shipping freight rates along with higher costs for fuel, copper and labor are also pinching project costs, company executives said.
This has led to a plummet in module pricing, with prices of polysilicon have declined 70%even as demand has increased by 20%. This has led some experts to conclude that by the end of 2024, solar module prices may approach the threshold of $0.10/W – a number many thought would be impossible until 2030 at the earliest.
In China, the world's top solar product maker, producers are already raising prices to protect margins, leading to slower orders. According to three solar panel makers in China polled by Reuters, prices for panels are up 20-40% in the past year, following the surge in costs for polysilicon, the raw material for solar cells and panels.
Research firm IHS Markit warned last week that its global solar installation forecast for the year could slide to 156 gigawatts from a current projection of 181 GW if price pressures do not ease. Wall Street has also punished the sector in recent weeks, sending the MAC Global Solar index (.SUNIDX) down 24% this year after it tripled in 2020.
Solar module prices may approach the threshold of $0.10/W by the end of 2024 or eventually in 2025, according to Tim Buckley, director of Australia-based think tank Climate Energy Finance (CEF).
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